Needless to say, a man could have made a killing placing a $100 bet in Vegas that the Rays would make the World Series. (For the record, it would have paid out 20 grand) Now that the match-up is set let's take a look and make a prediction.
This year's Series features the two teams that were the hottest in baseball down the stretch. The Rays won 97 games in baseball's strongest division and the Phillies held off the Mets in September and then easily dispatched off both the Brewers and the Dodgers.
The rotations are very different, with Tampa holding a significant advantage.
That said, the best pitcher on either team is Philadelphia's Cole Hamels. Hamels has been unstoppable in the postseason and will look to ice the Rays Wednesday night for a quick series lead. The problem is, after Hamels, the Phillies are suspect at best. Brett Myers can look like Cy Young one night and Anthony Young the next. Jamie Moyer is ageless, but he got manhandled in the NLCS. Meanwhile, midseason addition Joe Blanton is solid, if unspectacular.
The Rays are led by a trio of excellent young pitchers. Lefty Scott Kazmir draws the opening assignment and will be charged with shutting down Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. Righthanders Jamie Shields and Matt Garza are both fine performeres, with Garza on his way to becoming one of baseball's ten best pitchers. The fourth starter, Andy Sonnanstine, is a quality arm that prefers to beat opponents with guile more than heat.
The lineups are both balanced attacts that combine power and speed.
The Phillies are lead by Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. They are complimented by two fine players in their own right, outfielders Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino. The Phillies can score in bunches, but have been vulnerable to lefthanders at times this year.
The Rays are lead by their own trio of excellent hitters; Carlos Pena, BJ Upton and Evan Longoria. The onus will be on righthanded bats Longoria and Upton to exploit Philadelphia starters Hamels and Moyer.
Bottom line - these lineups are equally potent.
The pens are both effective units, with the wildcard being the closers. Philadelphia has the resurgent Brad Lidge and the Rays have the shaky Dan Wheeler. Wheeler's recent struggles led Tampa manager Joe Maddon to use David Price as the closer in Game 7 of the ALCS. If he's smart - and he's proven he is - he'll stick with Price.
In the end, this has the makings of a great series. I'm looking for the Phillies to take Game 1 behind Hamels and for the Rays to respond with a win in Game 2. When the Series shifts to Philly, watch Matt Garza give the Rays the 2-1 lead with a great performance. Game 4 goes to Philly who pounds Andy Sonnanstine into submission. Hamels gives the Phills the 3-2 lead with another win in Game 5. The Series heads back to the Trop for a Game 6 slugfest that the Rays win behind homers from Longoria and Pena. Charlie Manuel sends his ace back out for Game 7 to be opposed by Matt Garza. This time the Rays beat Hamels thanks to a three-run bomb from World Series MVP, Evan Longoria. Rookie David Price closes the Phillies out in the ninth with a 1-2-3 inning and the Rays become the first team ever to go from worst to first in one year.
Rays in 7.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Friday, July 25, 2008
AL East slugfest
With about 60 games remaining, the best divisional race is in the AL East where the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays will fight it out for one - maybe two - postseason slots. The three teams are almost deadlocked heading into the weekend with the Sox and Yanks playing this weekend in Fenway. The Rays have been the story of baseball this year, led by a brilliant young rotation and surprisingly good defense. The Sox have maintained their lead despite losing David Ortiz for the last six weeks. The Yankees have been beseiged by injuries, losing Chein Ming Wang, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui and Alex Rodriguez at various points. Most recently, the Bombers saw Jorge Posada go down and his season remains in the balance. Despite all the adversity, the Yanks have stayed in the thick of contention. As the deadline looms, each team could use some complimentary pieces.
The Rays could use another bat in the outfield and if they count on anything from oft-injured slugger Rocco Baldelli, they will probably be disappointed. Their best bet would be a trade with San Diego for veteran outfielder Brian Giles.
The BoSox have struggled getting the ball to Jonathan Papelbon late in games and could use a shutdown eighth-inning man. Trading Justin Masterson to Colorado for Brian Fuentes makes a lot of sense.
The Yankees most glaring need is in the outfield, though another starting pitcher would be welcomed too. Adam Dunn would be a great fit. A win-win trade with the Reds could be Humberto Sanchez and Ian Kennedy for Bronson Arroyo and The Donkey. Perhaps Brian Cashman could get David Weathers thrown in as well.
The Rays have never been in this position, so we really don't know what they'll do. We can, however, be certain that the Yanks and BoSox will be making trades next week.
So how will this break down?
Well, there's one huge discrepancy among the three teams. Mariano Rivera and Jonathan Papelbon will make the difference. The Rays are going with Troy Percival in the ninth and he's already broken down twice. Not only that, Percival is nowhere near as good as Paps or Mo. In the end, look for the Red Sox to win the East with 95 wins, while the Bombers claim the wildcard with 93 wins. The Rays will finish third at 91-71.
The Rays could use another bat in the outfield and if they count on anything from oft-injured slugger Rocco Baldelli, they will probably be disappointed. Their best bet would be a trade with San Diego for veteran outfielder Brian Giles.
The BoSox have struggled getting the ball to Jonathan Papelbon late in games and could use a shutdown eighth-inning man. Trading Justin Masterson to Colorado for Brian Fuentes makes a lot of sense.
The Yankees most glaring need is in the outfield, though another starting pitcher would be welcomed too. Adam Dunn would be a great fit. A win-win trade with the Reds could be Humberto Sanchez and Ian Kennedy for Bronson Arroyo and The Donkey. Perhaps Brian Cashman could get David Weathers thrown in as well.
The Rays have never been in this position, so we really don't know what they'll do. We can, however, be certain that the Yanks and BoSox will be making trades next week.
So how will this break down?
Well, there's one huge discrepancy among the three teams. Mariano Rivera and Jonathan Papelbon will make the difference. The Rays are going with Troy Percival in the ninth and he's already broken down twice. Not only that, Percival is nowhere near as good as Paps or Mo. In the end, look for the Red Sox to win the East with 95 wins, while the Bombers claim the wildcard with 93 wins. The Rays will finish third at 91-71.
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Deadline machinations
We sit eight days away from the MLB trade deadline with everyone looking to see the big names that get dealt. This year, we've had two teams strike early with the trades of aces CC Sabathia and Rich Harden. Let's take a gander at some possibilities as the 31st approaches.
Mark Teixeira - The Braves have been decimated by injury and they have little hope of winning the NL East. Their best bet is to move their powerful firstbaseman before he leaves via free agency. Luckily for them, they have an excellent partner lined up - the LA Angels. The Angels need a power bat and are offering Brandon Wood in return. If Atlanta could also throw in a reliever and get Casey Kotchman and Wood, they'd score a coup.
Adam Dunn - The Donkey isn't being talked about much these days, but despite what JP Ricciardi thinks, Dunn is a productive player. The Yankees and Mets could both use the big man's services. I'm going out on a limb and saying Dunn will be traded in the next week.
Huston Street - Oakland's closer seems to be next on the A's chopping block. Rumors have the Brewers closing in. If Billy Beane can get minor leaguer Mat Gamel in return he'll have done well. The Brewers need to solidify their pen more than any other contender out there and they need to make this deal.
Matt Holliday - Holliday's home and road splits suggest he's not an elite player away from Coors Field. Nevertheless, teams will be inquiring about the slugger in the next couple weeks. The emergence of thirdbasemen Ian Stewart is prompting the Rox to look around. They'll need a big return to move Holliday - they've asked the Rays for pitching phenom David Price. My guess is Holliday goes nowhere as the asking price will be Rocky Mountian high.
AJ Burnett - The best pitcher left on the market, Burnett could be an excellent sell-high for the Jays. The problem is, with Harden and Sabathia off the market, their available partners have diminished. Still, Burnett may be just the gamble a team like the Yankees is willing to take. Look for the hard-throwing righty to be traded right at the deadline.
Erik Bedard - Bedard won't be healthy in time for the deadline, but he will almost certainly be traded in August. The bet here is that the Dodgers make the move in an effort to steal the NL West from Arizona in the final weeks of the season.
Mark Teixeira - The Braves have been decimated by injury and they have little hope of winning the NL East. Their best bet is to move their powerful firstbaseman before he leaves via free agency. Luckily for them, they have an excellent partner lined up - the LA Angels. The Angels need a power bat and are offering Brandon Wood in return. If Atlanta could also throw in a reliever and get Casey Kotchman and Wood, they'd score a coup.
Adam Dunn - The Donkey isn't being talked about much these days, but despite what JP Ricciardi thinks, Dunn is a productive player. The Yankees and Mets could both use the big man's services. I'm going out on a limb and saying Dunn will be traded in the next week.
Huston Street - Oakland's closer seems to be next on the A's chopping block. Rumors have the Brewers closing in. If Billy Beane can get minor leaguer Mat Gamel in return he'll have done well. The Brewers need to solidify their pen more than any other contender out there and they need to make this deal.
Matt Holliday - Holliday's home and road splits suggest he's not an elite player away from Coors Field. Nevertheless, teams will be inquiring about the slugger in the next couple weeks. The emergence of thirdbasemen Ian Stewart is prompting the Rox to look around. They'll need a big return to move Holliday - they've asked the Rays for pitching phenom David Price. My guess is Holliday goes nowhere as the asking price will be Rocky Mountian high.
AJ Burnett - The best pitcher left on the market, Burnett could be an excellent sell-high for the Jays. The problem is, with Harden and Sabathia off the market, their available partners have diminished. Still, Burnett may be just the gamble a team like the Yankees is willing to take. Look for the hard-throwing righty to be traded right at the deadline.
Erik Bedard - Bedard won't be healthy in time for the deadline, but he will almost certainly be traded in August. The bet here is that the Dodgers make the move in an effort to steal the NL West from Arizona in the final weeks of the season.
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