As Cliff Lee mows down the Rays, we move to the National League Division Series...
Phillies vs Reds
This matchup pits two of the best offensive attacks in baseball against each other. By now we all know the usual suspects in Philly - Utley, Werth, Howard, Victorino and Rollins. Over in Cincy the young Reds are led by presumptive NL MVP Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce and veteran Scott Rolen.
Game one starter Edinson Volquez pitched well against the Phillies in two starts this season. Further, the Reds hammered Volquez' opponent, Roy Halladay, in their only meeting against him this summer.
The key for the Reds is to get the game turned over to their bullpen with a lead. Cincinnati has a tremendous late game weapon in Aroldis Chapman that neutralize Utley and Howard in critical situations. Reds closer Coco Cordero has also had a good year and is a dependable stopper.
However, there's one major problem with the aforementioned.
Getting a lead on the Phils is going to be nearly impossible. The Phillies sport the greatest three-man rotation since the 1990's Braves with Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz. The 2010 Phillies are built to dismantle the opposition with strikeout pitchers and a firecracker offense.
I love the future for the Cincinnati Reds; I really do. They have several offensive stars and the most exciting young pitcher in the game with Volquez. I hate to say it, but wait till next year Reds fans.
Phillies in 4.
Giants vs Braves
I love this matchup. This series has the makings of a true classic, something the divisional round usually lacks. These teams are practically mirror images. Both have excellent pitching, sometimes spotty defense and pedestrian offensive games. Both bullpens are well-above average units, anchored by excellent closers in Brian Wilson and Billy Wagner.
It's hard to define a pivot point in this series. We know the pitchers on both sides must step up and deliver the performances we've come to expect. I like Bobby Cox' decision to go with groundballer Derek Lowe in game one. Lowe has a history of postseason success that bodes well for Atlanta's chances in that first game at Pac Bell. (or whatever it's called now)
For the Giants, Tim Lincecum has been on fire over the last month and Matt Cain has been steady all year. I look for some must-see TV in that first game between Lowe and Lincecum.
To decide who might win this series, I had to look at the 25-man rosters of both teams. I just think the Giants are a little deeper. That, combined with the home-field advantage, will spell the end for the Bravos. Make no mistake, this series could go either way and I think it's a near-lock to go the full five games. I expect the teams to split the first two and the two at Turner field before a Game 1 rematch in the clincher where Tiny Tim and Brian Wilson put the Giants in the NLCS.
Giants in 5.
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
ALDS Previews
Baseball's purgatory is almost over. Tomorrow afternoon the playoffs get underway with an afternoon contest between the Rays and the Texas Rangers in St. Petersburg. It's the first of three contests on the day and the start of the always-frantic round of divisional play.
Here's our preview of the Junior Circuit matchups.
Tampa Bay vs. Texas
Just looking at the records, you'd have to like Tampa Bay's chances. They boast the league's best record and found a way to hold off the Yankees for the AL East crown. (which of course is essentially meaningless) Nevertheless, I have some serious concerns about the Rays' pitching staff. Beyond ace lefty David Price, who will pitch tomorrow, the Rays have been spotty. James Shields, he of the plus 5 ERA, gets the nod in Game 2, a very questionable decision. Shields is known for his track record of success in big spots, but the fact is he's been hit hard all year. His 5.18 ERA is inflated by a well-below average runners stranded rate of 68% (league average is closer to 75). Still, Shields has allowed 246 hits in 203 innings. There's no way to gloss that over; that's terrible.
Which makes a win in game one of utmost importance to the Rays. The problem is, they're facing Cliff Lee, who also has solid record in the postseason.
Defensively, both teams are very good. Their bullpens are both effective and their lineups, though inconsistent, have both speed and power.
This series is coming down to starting pitching. The Rangers will trot out CJ Wilson and Colby Lewis in games two and three, while the Rays will counter with the aforementioned Shields and the struggling Matt Garza.
Most experts expect the Rays to win a tough series. I'm no expert, but I do not concur.
The Rangers are going to upset Tampa simply because their lefthanded starting pitchers are going to silence Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena. Expect the Rangers to work carefully to Evan Longoria and go right after Crawford, Pena and BJ Upton.
Entering these playoffs, the Rangers have never won a postseason series. That changes in 2010.
Rangers in 4.
Minnesota vs New York
The only consequence the Yankees face by losing the AL East is that they must travel to sparkling Target Field to begin their playoff date with the Twins. Is that a problem? Maybe if you believe that Target will suppress the Yankees' power-hitting offense. Personally, I doubt it.
Look...the Yankees have plenty of problems. AJ Burnett is a mess, Javier Vazquez is useless and Andy Pettitte's health obviously a question mark. The 2010 Yankees are not as good as last year's version.
However, Joe Girardi has decided to pitch CC Sabathia in both Games 1 and 4, if it gets that far. That's the right decision. Sabathia is a proven workhorse who can handle the extra workload.
Both teams feature excellent offensive attacks, with New York sporting the best offense in baseball. The bats cancel each other out, so this series also comes down to pitching.
MLB Network's John Hart said last night that the Twins need ace Francisco Liriano to dominate with swing-and-miss stuff. That's entirly true. The problem is, in two starts against New York this year, Liriano allowed more than a hit per inning. The Yankees will strike out against him, sure, but they will also hit.
The key to this entire series rests on one aging Yank; Andy Pettitte. Expect to see a vintage Pettitte hold the Twins in check and win yet another postseason game. The Yankees fate is in Pettitte's left hand and he knows it. Expect him to deliver.
I'd love to say the Twins will find a way to get past the Yankees this time, but I can't see it. With Sabathia and Pettitte, the Yankees have more pitching. I see the Yankees veterans like Posada, Jeter and A-Rod stepping up. This is too much for Minnesota.
Yankees in 4.
NLDS previews tomorrow!
Here's our preview of the Junior Circuit matchups.
Tampa Bay vs. Texas
Just looking at the records, you'd have to like Tampa Bay's chances. They boast the league's best record and found a way to hold off the Yankees for the AL East crown. (which of course is essentially meaningless) Nevertheless, I have some serious concerns about the Rays' pitching staff. Beyond ace lefty David Price, who will pitch tomorrow, the Rays have been spotty. James Shields, he of the plus 5 ERA, gets the nod in Game 2, a very questionable decision. Shields is known for his track record of success in big spots, but the fact is he's been hit hard all year. His 5.18 ERA is inflated by a well-below average runners stranded rate of 68% (league average is closer to 75). Still, Shields has allowed 246 hits in 203 innings. There's no way to gloss that over; that's terrible.
Which makes a win in game one of utmost importance to the Rays. The problem is, they're facing Cliff Lee, who also has solid record in the postseason.
Defensively, both teams are very good. Their bullpens are both effective and their lineups, though inconsistent, have both speed and power.
This series is coming down to starting pitching. The Rangers will trot out CJ Wilson and Colby Lewis in games two and three, while the Rays will counter with the aforementioned Shields and the struggling Matt Garza.
Most experts expect the Rays to win a tough series. I'm no expert, but I do not concur.
The Rangers are going to upset Tampa simply because their lefthanded starting pitchers are going to silence Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena. Expect the Rangers to work carefully to Evan Longoria and go right after Crawford, Pena and BJ Upton.
Entering these playoffs, the Rangers have never won a postseason series. That changes in 2010.
Rangers in 4.
Minnesota vs New York
The only consequence the Yankees face by losing the AL East is that they must travel to sparkling Target Field to begin their playoff date with the Twins. Is that a problem? Maybe if you believe that Target will suppress the Yankees' power-hitting offense. Personally, I doubt it.
Look...the Yankees have plenty of problems. AJ Burnett is a mess, Javier Vazquez is useless and Andy Pettitte's health obviously a question mark. The 2010 Yankees are not as good as last year's version.
However, Joe Girardi has decided to pitch CC Sabathia in both Games 1 and 4, if it gets that far. That's the right decision. Sabathia is a proven workhorse who can handle the extra workload.
Both teams feature excellent offensive attacks, with New York sporting the best offense in baseball. The bats cancel each other out, so this series also comes down to pitching.
MLB Network's John Hart said last night that the Twins need ace Francisco Liriano to dominate with swing-and-miss stuff. That's entirly true. The problem is, in two starts against New York this year, Liriano allowed more than a hit per inning. The Yankees will strike out against him, sure, but they will also hit.
The key to this entire series rests on one aging Yank; Andy Pettitte. Expect to see a vintage Pettitte hold the Twins in check and win yet another postseason game. The Yankees fate is in Pettitte's left hand and he knows it. Expect him to deliver.
I'd love to say the Twins will find a way to get past the Yankees this time, but I can't see it. With Sabathia and Pettitte, the Yankees have more pitching. I see the Yankees veterans like Posada, Jeter and A-Rod stepping up. This is too much for Minnesota.
Yankees in 4.
NLDS previews tomorrow!
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