Should Boston break the bank for Teixeira?

With the word that the Red Sox will make a strong push to bring Big Tex into the middle of the lineup for years to come, I'd like to present arguments for and against making this purchase.

Ah, no thanks

Theo and the gang have practiced fiscal restraint when it comes to locking up players to long-term deals, I don't think they've signed anyone to more than 5 years during their tenure and mostly like to max out with 4 year deals. Sure, the have the money but they run the team like a well-run business. The set a budget and value for assets and are ready to walk away when the price gets beyond that budget. It sure worked well for the Damon and Pedro scenarios. Does anyone really want to argue with their success? The Red Sox are a player development machine. Sure, they have the obligatory large market players like JD Drew, Dice-K, etc. But they also have guys like Pedrioa, Papelbon, Youk and Lester making chump change because they are home-grown guys and haven't the years yet to sign big contracts. Next up in that congo long from Pawtucket is a gentleman named Lars Anderson, a slugging 1st baseman who will be playing in the Bigs quite possibly by September of '09. He'll be cheap and if the Boston development crew has done their job, should produce like the previously mentioned young studs. Locking up Tex makes it difficult to bring up Anderson as they play the same position. In the long run, paying Tex 22-25 mil per season takes away some of the salary flexibility that the Sox gained this off season and will make it more difficult to lock up some of the Pedroia/Pap/Lester posse. Bottom line, one player does not make a team and the Sox will continue to groom star players with the farm system to fill out the ML roster. Tex does not fit into this philosophy, regardless of his numbers.

Blank Check, Mr Teixiera

To start with, how about the career seasonal average (pro-rated over 162 games): 36Hr's, 121 RBI's, .290 ave, .378 OBP, .541 slg, not to mention 2 gold gloves at a corner position. Oh, and he'll be 29 early next year.
Even though he commands a hefty salary, he's a Boston-type player. He has a golden glove, gets on base, has power and doesn't K that often. He's been a healthy player to date and is just flat-out productive. Lars Anderson has the makeup to be a productive hitter in the Bigs, but he's still just a prospect at this time. Signing Tex would give the Sox a valuable bargaining chip should they need to make a big deal at some point over the next season. Do you think the offensively challenged Padres wouldn't jump at the chance to add a power-hitting prospect to their system in exchange for Jake Peavy? While Theo's plan has worked extremely well, I think they bend the rules a bit in signing a player of the caliber of Teixiera. Lastly, there is the argument of need.
The Manny & Ortiz show was entertaining and a obvious huge reason for Boston's success over the past 5 years. While Boston certainly had little choice with the Manny situation, it no doubt hurt the lineup to lose such a productive hitter for the playoffs. As Ortiz slows down, there is the prospect that the Boston lineup has lost not just Manny but also Papi. He's getting up in age and his body-type doesn't suggest that he'll really bounce back to his MVP-type production. Anderson plays 1b but he's not up to Teixiera's level and could easily be slotted into Ortiz's DH spot in 2010. Thus, the power-hitting 3-4 combo could be replaced as early as next year by signing Texiera and Epstein should break the bank to do it.

A cup of joe and some hotstove

Free agency kicked off last Friday, with the first big move being the Yankees' reported $14o million, six year offer to CC Sabathia. The Bombers remain the odds-on favorite to acquire the services of the hulking lefthander and he'd instantly give them a big game ace. Look for CC to eventually sign a deal a couple million more than the one handed to Mets ace Johan Santana last winter.
Meanwhile, the Winter Meetings are a couple weeks away. We know the drill by now...expect more action before and after the meetings than during.
Jake Peavy is another name being thrown about. The Braves were closing in on landing "Peav" but balked at including top pitching prospect Tommy Hanson. From where I sit, I don't get the Braves' reluctance. Peavy would give them the ace they need. Hanson looks very good, but he's an unproven kid. I still think the Braves are a potential match for Peavy, but at this point you'd have to think the Dodgers could emerge as a favorite. How about this deal...James McDonald and Andre Ethier for Peavy. That would help both teams out. If it happens, the Dodgers would have a devastating front four of Billingsley, Peavy, Kershaw and Kuroda. Wow.
The bidding for Mark Teixeira has yet to get underway. Many insiders believe the Yankees' focus on pitching will keep them out of the bidding. The Angels should do all they can to lock up Big Tex as they need his bat. Look for the Red Sox to make a move at Tex as well. In fact, if I'm Theo Epstein, I make acquiring Teixeira a priority.
The closers market is suddenly flooded, with Trevor Hoffman and Kerry Wood being cast aside by their former teams. The Mets, Tigers, Indians and Brewers have the biggest need for a stopper at the moment. Look for the market's biggest name, Francisco Rodriguez, to eventually sign with the Mets. I see Hoffman heading to Cleveland, Wood to Texas and Brian Fuentes to the Brew Crew. Two other closers that might move via trade include Bobby Jenks and Jose Valverde.
Manny Ramirez has already said he's going with the highest bidder. So far, the only interested suitor appears to be the Dodgers. Look for other teams, namely the Yankees and Angels to put out feelers, but expect that Man-Ram stays in LA.
Blockbuster trades? As usual, this requires some 'leap of faith" speculation since we usually don't hear a whisper about surprising trades until they happen. I'll take a shot. My guess is that Prince Fielder gets traded just before spring training....to Tampa Bay for Scott Kazmir.

The Fall Classic

Needless to say, a man could have made a killing placing a $100 bet in Vegas that the Rays would make the World Series. (For the record, it would have paid out 20 grand) Now that the match-up is set let's take a look and make a prediction.
This year's Series features the two teams that were the hottest in baseball down the stretch. The Rays won 97 games in baseball's strongest division and the Phillies held off the Mets in September and then easily dispatched off both the Brewers and the Dodgers.
The rotations are very different, with Tampa holding a significant advantage.
That said, the best pitcher on either team is Philadelphia's Cole Hamels. Hamels has been unstoppable in the postseason and will look to ice the Rays Wednesday night for a quick series lead. The problem is, after Hamels, the Phillies are suspect at best. Brett Myers can look like Cy Young one night and Anthony Young the next. Jamie Moyer is ageless, but he got manhandled in the NLCS. Meanwhile, midseason addition Joe Blanton is solid, if unspectacular.
The Rays are led by a trio of excellent young pitchers. Lefty Scott Kazmir draws the opening assignment and will be charged with shutting down Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. Righthanders Jamie Shields and Matt Garza are both fine performeres, with Garza on his way to becoming one of baseball's ten best pitchers. The fourth starter, Andy Sonnanstine, is a quality arm that prefers to beat opponents with guile more than heat.
The lineups are both balanced attacts that combine power and speed.
The Phillies are lead by Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. They are complimented by two fine players in their own right, outfielders Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino. The Phillies can score in bunches, but have been vulnerable to lefthanders at times this year.
The Rays are lead by their own trio of excellent hitters; Carlos Pena, BJ Upton and Evan Longoria. The onus will be on righthanded bats Longoria and Upton to exploit Philadelphia starters Hamels and Moyer.
Bottom line - these lineups are equally potent.
The pens are both effective units, with the wildcard being the closers. Philadelphia has the resurgent Brad Lidge and the Rays have the shaky Dan Wheeler. Wheeler's recent struggles led Tampa manager Joe Maddon to use David Price as the closer in Game 7 of the ALCS. If he's smart - and he's proven he is - he'll stick with Price.
In the end, this has the makings of a great series. I'm looking for the Phillies to take Game 1 behind Hamels and for the Rays to respond with a win in Game 2. When the Series shifts to Philly, watch Matt Garza give the Rays the 2-1 lead with a great performance. Game 4 goes to Philly who pounds Andy Sonnanstine into submission. Hamels gives the Phills the 3-2 lead with another win in Game 5. The Series heads back to the Trop for a Game 6 slugfest that the Rays win behind homers from Longoria and Pena. Charlie Manuel sends his ace back out for Game 7 to be opposed by Matt Garza. This time the Rays beat Hamels thanks to a three-run bomb from World Series MVP, Evan Longoria. Rookie David Price closes the Phillies out in the ninth with a 1-2-3 inning and the Rays become the first team ever to go from worst to first in one year.
Rays in 7.

AL East slugfest

With about 60 games remaining, the best divisional race is in the AL East where the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays will fight it out for one - maybe two - postseason slots. The three teams are almost deadlocked heading into the weekend with the Sox and Yanks playing this weekend in Fenway. The Rays have been the story of baseball this year, led by a brilliant young rotation and surprisingly good defense. The Sox have maintained their lead despite losing David Ortiz for the last six weeks. The Yankees have been beseiged by injuries, losing Chein Ming Wang, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui and Alex Rodriguez at various points. Most recently, the Bombers saw Jorge Posada go down and his season remains in the balance. Despite all the adversity, the Yanks have stayed in the thick of contention. As the deadline looms, each team could use some complimentary pieces.
The Rays could use another bat in the outfield and if they count on anything from oft-injured slugger Rocco Baldelli, they will probably be disappointed. Their best bet would be a trade with San Diego for veteran outfielder Brian Giles.
The BoSox have struggled getting the ball to Jonathan Papelbon late in games and could use a shutdown eighth-inning man. Trading Justin Masterson to Colorado for Brian Fuentes makes a lot of sense.
The Yankees most glaring need is in the outfield, though another starting pitcher would be welcomed too. Adam Dunn would be a great fit. A win-win trade with the Reds could be Humberto Sanchez and Ian Kennedy for Bronson Arroyo and The Donkey. Perhaps Brian Cashman could get David Weathers thrown in as well.
The Rays have never been in this position, so we really don't know what they'll do. We can, however, be certain that the Yanks and BoSox will be making trades next week.
So how will this break down?
Well, there's one huge discrepancy among the three teams. Mariano Rivera and Jonathan Papelbon will make the difference. The Rays are going with Troy Percival in the ninth and he's already broken down twice. Not only that, Percival is nowhere near as good as Paps or Mo. In the end, look for the Red Sox to win the East with 95 wins, while the Bombers claim the wildcard with 93 wins. The Rays will finish third at 91-71.

Deadline machinations

We sit eight days away from the MLB trade deadline with everyone looking to see the big names that get dealt. This year, we've had two teams strike early with the trades of aces CC Sabathia and Rich Harden. Let's take a gander at some possibilities as the 31st approaches.
Mark Teixeira - The Braves have been decimated by injury and they have little hope of winning the NL East. Their best bet is to move their powerful firstbaseman before he leaves via free agency. Luckily for them, they have an excellent partner lined up - the LA Angels. The Angels need a power bat and are offering Brandon Wood in return. If Atlanta could also throw in a reliever and get Casey Kotchman and Wood, they'd score a coup.
Adam Dunn - The Donkey isn't being talked about much these days, but despite what JP Ricciardi thinks, Dunn is a productive player. The Yankees and Mets could both use the big man's services. I'm going out on a limb and saying Dunn will be traded in the next week.
Huston Street - Oakland's closer seems to be next on the A's chopping block. Rumors have the Brewers closing in. If Billy Beane can get minor leaguer Mat Gamel in return he'll have done well. The Brewers need to solidify their pen more than any other contender out there and they need to make this deal.
Matt Holliday - Holliday's home and road splits suggest he's not an elite player away from Coors Field. Nevertheless, teams will be inquiring about the slugger in the next couple weeks. The emergence of thirdbasemen Ian Stewart is prompting the Rox to look around. They'll need a big return to move Holliday - they've asked the Rays for pitching phenom David Price. My guess is Holliday goes nowhere as the asking price will be Rocky Mountian high.
AJ Burnett - The best pitcher left on the market, Burnett could be an excellent sell-high for the Jays. The problem is, with Harden and Sabathia off the market, their available partners have diminished. Still, Burnett may be just the gamble a team like the Yankees is willing to take. Look for the hard-throwing righty to be traded right at the deadline.
Erik Bedard - Bedard won't be healthy in time for the deadline, but he will almost certainly be traded in August. The bet here is that the Dodgers make the move in an effort to steal the NL West from Arizona in the final weeks of the season.

Teams that will surprise in '08

We're almost there. Spring training starts in less than one month. Johan Santana is still a Twin and the Boston Red Sox are still the favorites going into 2008. We all have an idea of who will contend but every year we're treated to some unexpected surprise teams. For instance, last year we had the Rockies who literally shocked the world with their pennant run and 20 wins in 21 games.
This year we have a couple teams that I believe will be good teams and surprise a lot of people. First, the Tampa Bay Rays are going to be a contender and will push the Yankees and Red Sox for the division title. The Rays have carefully assembled a nasty young pitching staff anchored by Scott Kazmir and Jamie Shields. Complementing them are lefty Andy Sonnanstine and fireballer Matt Garza, who could eventually emerge as an ace. They aren't done there because in the minors they have David Price, Jake McGee and Wade Davis. The Rays are literally bursting with pitching talent for the first time in franchise history. Offensively, they have slugger Carlos Pena, speed demon Carl Crawford and five-tool talent B.J. Upton. Third base prospect Evan Longoria also projects as a legit .300 hitter with 30 homers annually. Folks, this is going to be a nasty team very, very soon. And wait till you get a load of the new unis. Very sharp.
In the senior circuit, my surprise pick is the Cincinatti Reds. Dusty Baker, although notorious for overworking pitchers, is famous for turning around struggling franchises. He'll have it easy this time, because the Reds have a lot of available talent. On the mound, Aaron Harang is the ace no one ever talks about. He'll be joined by young righthanders Homer Bailey and Edison Volquez. Bronson Arroyo is an excellent innings-eater that slots right after Harang. Adam "The Donkey" Dunn and Ken Griffey lead a balanced offense that also features Brandon Phillips, Edwin Encarnacion and Ryan Freel. Down on the farm waits All-World outfielder Jay Bruce and righthanded power pitcher Johnny Cueto. In fact, Bruce may just break camp as the everyday rightfielder. His comparable is Larry Walker, so expect immediate dividends. In a winnable NL Central, the Reds will contend in '08.