Tuesday, October 21, 2008

The Fall Classic

Needless to say, a man could have made a killing placing a $100 bet in Vegas that the Rays would make the World Series. (For the record, it would have paid out 20 grand) Now that the match-up is set let's take a look and make a prediction.
This year's Series features the two teams that were the hottest in baseball down the stretch. The Rays won 97 games in baseball's strongest division and the Phillies held off the Mets in September and then easily dispatched off both the Brewers and the Dodgers.
The rotations are very different, with Tampa holding a significant advantage.
That said, the best pitcher on either team is Philadelphia's Cole Hamels. Hamels has been unstoppable in the postseason and will look to ice the Rays Wednesday night for a quick series lead. The problem is, after Hamels, the Phillies are suspect at best. Brett Myers can look like Cy Young one night and Anthony Young the next. Jamie Moyer is ageless, but he got manhandled in the NLCS. Meanwhile, midseason addition Joe Blanton is solid, if unspectacular.
The Rays are led by a trio of excellent young pitchers. Lefty Scott Kazmir draws the opening assignment and will be charged with shutting down Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. Righthanders Jamie Shields and Matt Garza are both fine performeres, with Garza on his way to becoming one of baseball's ten best pitchers. The fourth starter, Andy Sonnanstine, is a quality arm that prefers to beat opponents with guile more than heat.
The lineups are both balanced attacts that combine power and speed.
The Phillies are lead by Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. They are complimented by two fine players in their own right, outfielders Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino. The Phillies can score in bunches, but have been vulnerable to lefthanders at times this year.
The Rays are lead by their own trio of excellent hitters; Carlos Pena, BJ Upton and Evan Longoria. The onus will be on righthanded bats Longoria and Upton to exploit Philadelphia starters Hamels and Moyer.
Bottom line - these lineups are equally potent.
The pens are both effective units, with the wildcard being the closers. Philadelphia has the resurgent Brad Lidge and the Rays have the shaky Dan Wheeler. Wheeler's recent struggles led Tampa manager Joe Maddon to use David Price as the closer in Game 7 of the ALCS. If he's smart - and he's proven he is - he'll stick with Price.
In the end, this has the makings of a great series. I'm looking for the Phillies to take Game 1 behind Hamels and for the Rays to respond with a win in Game 2. When the Series shifts to Philly, watch Matt Garza give the Rays the 2-1 lead with a great performance. Game 4 goes to Philly who pounds Andy Sonnanstine into submission. Hamels gives the Phills the 3-2 lead with another win in Game 5. The Series heads back to the Trop for a Game 6 slugfest that the Rays win behind homers from Longoria and Pena. Charlie Manuel sends his ace back out for Game 7 to be opposed by Matt Garza. This time the Rays beat Hamels thanks to a three-run bomb from World Series MVP, Evan Longoria. Rookie David Price closes the Phillies out in the ninth with a 1-2-3 inning and the Rays become the first team ever to go from worst to first in one year.
Rays in 7.

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