Boston vs Los Angeles
This is probably the most closely-contested match-up of the first round. Both teams have potent offensive attacks and solid starting pitching. The difference between the clubs is the bullpens - and the BoSox pen is clearly superior. Papelbon, Wagner, Okajima and Bard basically shorten every game to a six-inning contest.
Each team's starting pitching is well above average. The Angel's season stats are not impressive, but their starters have been much better over the last two months, especially young lefty Scott Kazmir.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox have two aces in Josh Beckett and Jon Lester followed by a resurgent Daisuke Matsuzaka and the young flamethrower Clay Buchholz. On their game, the Boston pitching can simply shut the Angels down.
Ultimately, it comes down to pitching. I like the inspirational story of the Angels' 2009 season and I think their energy will keep the series closer than it should be. But in the end, Boston has just too much pitching and they will prevail.
Red Sox in 4
New York vs Minnesota
David and Goliath. I've yet to see one publication pick the Twins to win this and on paper it's easy to see why. Baseball isn't played on paper though and just dismissing the Twins' chances is foolish. They are overwhelming underdogs - but the annals of baseball history are lined with upsets that the experts never expected. (How about the Marlins and Yankees in 2003?)
When you look at both squads, there isn't a single component where the Twins are better. The Yankees have a better lineup, bullpen and better starting pitching. The experience of Ron Gardenhire is about the only area where the Twins have an edge, and it's a minimal one at that.
The Twins have one thing going for them. They have played their best baseball in the last month. That momentum will need to carry them.
I can't pick the Twins but I do believe this is a much closer series than most people believe.
Yankees in 5
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