With about 60 games remaining, the best divisional race is in the AL East where the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays will fight it out for one - maybe two - postseason slots. The three teams are almost deadlocked heading into the weekend with the Sox and Yanks playing this weekend in Fenway. The Rays have been the story of baseball this year, led by a brilliant young rotation and surprisingly good defense. The Sox have maintained their lead despite losing David Ortiz for the last six weeks. The Yankees have been beseiged by injuries, losing Chein Ming Wang, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui and Alex Rodriguez at various points. Most recently, the Bombers saw Jorge Posada go down and his season remains in the balance. Despite all the adversity, the Yanks have stayed in the thick of contention. As the deadline looms, each team could use some complimentary pieces.
The Rays could use another bat in the outfield and if they count on anything from oft-injured slugger Rocco Baldelli, they will probably be disappointed. Their best bet would be a trade with San Diego for veteran outfielder Brian Giles.
The BoSox have struggled getting the ball to Jonathan Papelbon late in games and could use a shutdown eighth-inning man. Trading Justin Masterson to Colorado for Brian Fuentes makes a lot of sense.
The Yankees most glaring need is in the outfield, though another starting pitcher would be welcomed too. Adam Dunn would be a great fit. A win-win trade with the Reds could be Humberto Sanchez and Ian Kennedy for Bronson Arroyo and The Donkey. Perhaps Brian Cashman could get David Weathers thrown in as well.
The Rays have never been in this position, so we really don't know what they'll do. We can, however, be certain that the Yanks and BoSox will be making trades next week.
So how will this break down?
Well, there's one huge discrepancy among the three teams. Mariano Rivera and Jonathan Papelbon will make the difference. The Rays are going with Troy Percival in the ninth and he's already broken down twice. Not only that, Percival is nowhere near as good as Paps or Mo. In the end, look for the Red Sox to win the East with 95 wins, while the Bombers claim the wildcard with 93 wins. The Rays will finish third at 91-71.
Friday, July 25, 2008
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Deadline machinations
We sit eight days away from the MLB trade deadline with everyone looking to see the big names that get dealt. This year, we've had two teams strike early with the trades of aces CC Sabathia and Rich Harden. Let's take a gander at some possibilities as the 31st approaches.
Mark Teixeira - The Braves have been decimated by injury and they have little hope of winning the NL East. Their best bet is to move their powerful firstbaseman before he leaves via free agency. Luckily for them, they have an excellent partner lined up - the LA Angels. The Angels need a power bat and are offering Brandon Wood in return. If Atlanta could also throw in a reliever and get Casey Kotchman and Wood, they'd score a coup.
Adam Dunn - The Donkey isn't being talked about much these days, but despite what JP Ricciardi thinks, Dunn is a productive player. The Yankees and Mets could both use the big man's services. I'm going out on a limb and saying Dunn will be traded in the next week.
Huston Street - Oakland's closer seems to be next on the A's chopping block. Rumors have the Brewers closing in. If Billy Beane can get minor leaguer Mat Gamel in return he'll have done well. The Brewers need to solidify their pen more than any other contender out there and they need to make this deal.
Matt Holliday - Holliday's home and road splits suggest he's not an elite player away from Coors Field. Nevertheless, teams will be inquiring about the slugger in the next couple weeks. The emergence of thirdbasemen Ian Stewart is prompting the Rox to look around. They'll need a big return to move Holliday - they've asked the Rays for pitching phenom David Price. My guess is Holliday goes nowhere as the asking price will be Rocky Mountian high.
AJ Burnett - The best pitcher left on the market, Burnett could be an excellent sell-high for the Jays. The problem is, with Harden and Sabathia off the market, their available partners have diminished. Still, Burnett may be just the gamble a team like the Yankees is willing to take. Look for the hard-throwing righty to be traded right at the deadline.
Erik Bedard - Bedard won't be healthy in time for the deadline, but he will almost certainly be traded in August. The bet here is that the Dodgers make the move in an effort to steal the NL West from Arizona in the final weeks of the season.
Mark Teixeira - The Braves have been decimated by injury and they have little hope of winning the NL East. Their best bet is to move their powerful firstbaseman before he leaves via free agency. Luckily for them, they have an excellent partner lined up - the LA Angels. The Angels need a power bat and are offering Brandon Wood in return. If Atlanta could also throw in a reliever and get Casey Kotchman and Wood, they'd score a coup.
Adam Dunn - The Donkey isn't being talked about much these days, but despite what JP Ricciardi thinks, Dunn is a productive player. The Yankees and Mets could both use the big man's services. I'm going out on a limb and saying Dunn will be traded in the next week.
Huston Street - Oakland's closer seems to be next on the A's chopping block. Rumors have the Brewers closing in. If Billy Beane can get minor leaguer Mat Gamel in return he'll have done well. The Brewers need to solidify their pen more than any other contender out there and they need to make this deal.
Matt Holliday - Holliday's home and road splits suggest he's not an elite player away from Coors Field. Nevertheless, teams will be inquiring about the slugger in the next couple weeks. The emergence of thirdbasemen Ian Stewart is prompting the Rox to look around. They'll need a big return to move Holliday - they've asked the Rays for pitching phenom David Price. My guess is Holliday goes nowhere as the asking price will be Rocky Mountian high.
AJ Burnett - The best pitcher left on the market, Burnett could be an excellent sell-high for the Jays. The problem is, with Harden and Sabathia off the market, their available partners have diminished. Still, Burnett may be just the gamble a team like the Yankees is willing to take. Look for the hard-throwing righty to be traded right at the deadline.
Erik Bedard - Bedard won't be healthy in time for the deadline, but he will almost certainly be traded in August. The bet here is that the Dodgers make the move in an effort to steal the NL West from Arizona in the final weeks of the season.
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Teams that will surprise in '08
We're almost there. Spring training starts in less than one month. Johan Santana is still a Twin and the Boston Red Sox are still the favorites going into 2008. We all have an idea of who will contend but every year we're treated to some unexpected surprise teams. For instance, last year we had the Rockies who literally shocked the world with their pennant run and 20 wins in 21 games.
This year we have a couple teams that I believe will be good teams and surprise a lot of people. First, the Tampa Bay Rays are going to be a contender and will push the Yankees and Red Sox for the division title. The Rays have carefully assembled a nasty young pitching staff anchored by Scott Kazmir and Jamie Shields. Complementing them are lefty Andy Sonnanstine and fireballer Matt Garza, who could eventually emerge as an ace. They aren't done there because in the minors they have David Price, Jake McGee and Wade Davis. The Rays are literally bursting with pitching talent for the first time in franchise history. Offensively, they have slugger Carlos Pena, speed demon Carl Crawford and five-tool talent B.J. Upton. Third base prospect Evan Longoria also projects as a legit .300 hitter with 30 homers annually. Folks, this is going to be a nasty team very, very soon. And wait till you get a load of the new unis. Very sharp.
In the senior circuit, my surprise pick is the Cincinatti Reds. Dusty Baker, although notorious for overworking pitchers, is famous for turning around struggling franchises. He'll have it easy this time, because the Reds have a lot of available talent. On the mound, Aaron Harang is the ace no one ever talks about. He'll be joined by young righthanders Homer Bailey and Edison Volquez. Bronson Arroyo is an excellent innings-eater that slots right after Harang. Adam "The Donkey" Dunn and Ken Griffey lead a balanced offense that also features Brandon Phillips, Edwin Encarnacion and Ryan Freel. Down on the farm waits All-World outfielder Jay Bruce and righthanded power pitcher Johnny Cueto. In fact, Bruce may just break camp as the everyday rightfielder. His comparable is Larry Walker, so expect immediate dividends. In a winnable NL Central, the Reds will contend in '08.
This year we have a couple teams that I believe will be good teams and surprise a lot of people. First, the Tampa Bay Rays are going to be a contender and will push the Yankees and Red Sox for the division title. The Rays have carefully assembled a nasty young pitching staff anchored by Scott Kazmir and Jamie Shields. Complementing them are lefty Andy Sonnanstine and fireballer Matt Garza, who could eventually emerge as an ace. They aren't done there because in the minors they have David Price, Jake McGee and Wade Davis. The Rays are literally bursting with pitching talent for the first time in franchise history. Offensively, they have slugger Carlos Pena, speed demon Carl Crawford and five-tool talent B.J. Upton. Third base prospect Evan Longoria also projects as a legit .300 hitter with 30 homers annually. Folks, this is going to be a nasty team very, very soon. And wait till you get a load of the new unis. Very sharp.
In the senior circuit, my surprise pick is the Cincinatti Reds. Dusty Baker, although notorious for overworking pitchers, is famous for turning around struggling franchises. He'll have it easy this time, because the Reds have a lot of available talent. On the mound, Aaron Harang is the ace no one ever talks about. He'll be joined by young righthanders Homer Bailey and Edison Volquez. Bronson Arroyo is an excellent innings-eater that slots right after Harang. Adam "The Donkey" Dunn and Ken Griffey lead a balanced offense that also features Brandon Phillips, Edwin Encarnacion and Ryan Freel. Down on the farm waits All-World outfielder Jay Bruce and righthanded power pitcher Johnny Cueto. In fact, Bruce may just break camp as the everyday rightfielder. His comparable is Larry Walker, so expect immediate dividends. In a winnable NL Central, the Reds will contend in '08.
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