With the word that the Red Sox will make a strong push to bring Big Tex into the middle of the lineup for years to come, I'd like to present arguments for and against making this purchase.
Ah, no thanks
Theo and the gang have practiced fiscal restraint when it comes to locking up players to long-term deals, I don't think they've signed anyone to more than 5 years during their tenure and mostly like to max out with 4 year deals. Sure, the have the money but they run the team like a well-run business. The set a budget and value for assets and are ready to walk away when the price gets beyond that budget. It sure worked well for the Damon and Pedro scenarios. Does anyone really want to argue with their success? The Red Sox are a player development machine. Sure, they have the obligatory large market players like JD Drew, Dice-K, etc. But they also have guys like Pedrioa, Papelbon, Youk and Lester making chump change because they are home-grown guys and haven't the years yet to sign big contracts. Next up in that congo long from Pawtucket is a gentleman named Lars Anderson, a slugging 1st baseman who will be playing in the Bigs quite possibly by September of '09. He'll be cheap and if the Boston development crew has done their job, should produce like the previously mentioned young studs. Locking up Tex makes it difficult to bring up Anderson as they play the same position. In the long run, paying Tex 22-25 mil per season takes away some of the salary flexibility that the Sox gained this off season and will make it more difficult to lock up some of the Pedroia/Pap/Lester posse. Bottom line, one player does not make a team and the Sox will continue to groom star players with the farm system to fill out the ML roster. Tex does not fit into this philosophy, regardless of his numbers.
Blank Check, Mr Teixiera
To start with, how about the career seasonal average (pro-rated over 162 games): 36Hr's, 121 RBI's, .290 ave, .378 OBP, .541 slg, not to mention 2 gold gloves at a corner position. Oh, and he'll be 29 early next year.
Even though he commands a hefty salary, he's a Boston-type player. He has a golden glove, gets on base, has power and doesn't K that often. He's been a healthy player to date and is just flat-out productive. Lars Anderson has the makeup to be a productive hitter in the Bigs, but he's still just a prospect at this time. Signing Tex would give the Sox a valuable bargaining chip should they need to make a big deal at some point over the next season. Do you think the offensively challenged Padres wouldn't jump at the chance to add a power-hitting prospect to their system in exchange for Jake Peavy? While Theo's plan has worked extremely well, I think they bend the rules a bit in signing a player of the caliber of Teixiera. Lastly, there is the argument of need.
The Manny & Ortiz show was entertaining and a obvious huge reason for Boston's success over the past 5 years. While Boston certainly had little choice with the Manny situation, it no doubt hurt the lineup to lose such a productive hitter for the playoffs. As Ortiz slows down, there is the prospect that the Boston lineup has lost not just Manny but also Papi. He's getting up in age and his body-type doesn't suggest that he'll really bounce back to his MVP-type production. Anderson plays 1b but he's not up to Teixiera's level and could easily be slotted into Ortiz's DH spot in 2010. Thus, the power-hitting 3-4 combo could be replaced as early as next year by signing Texiera and Epstein should break the bank to do it.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Monday, November 17, 2008
A cup of joe and some hotstove
Free agency kicked off last Friday, with the first big move being the Yankees' reported $14o million, six year offer to CC Sabathia. The Bombers remain the odds-on favorite to acquire the services of the hulking lefthander and he'd instantly give them a big game ace. Look for CC to eventually sign a deal a couple million more than the one handed to Mets ace Johan Santana last winter.
Meanwhile, the Winter Meetings are a couple weeks away. We know the drill by now...expect more action before and after the meetings than during.
Jake Peavy is another name being thrown about. The Braves were closing in on landing "Peav" but balked at including top pitching prospect Tommy Hanson. From where I sit, I don't get the Braves' reluctance. Peavy would give them the ace they need. Hanson looks very good, but he's an unproven kid. I still think the Braves are a potential match for Peavy, but at this point you'd have to think the Dodgers could emerge as a favorite. How about this deal...James McDonald and Andre Ethier for Peavy. That would help both teams out. If it happens, the Dodgers would have a devastating front four of Billingsley, Peavy, Kershaw and Kuroda. Wow.
The bidding for Mark Teixeira has yet to get underway. Many insiders believe the Yankees' focus on pitching will keep them out of the bidding. The Angels should do all they can to lock up Big Tex as they need his bat. Look for the Red Sox to make a move at Tex as well. In fact, if I'm Theo Epstein, I make acquiring Teixeira a priority.
The closers market is suddenly flooded, with Trevor Hoffman and Kerry Wood being cast aside by their former teams. The Mets, Tigers, Indians and Brewers have the biggest need for a stopper at the moment. Look for the market's biggest name, Francisco Rodriguez, to eventually sign with the Mets. I see Hoffman heading to Cleveland, Wood to Texas and Brian Fuentes to the Brew Crew. Two other closers that might move via trade include Bobby Jenks and Jose Valverde.
Manny Ramirez has already said he's going with the highest bidder. So far, the only interested suitor appears to be the Dodgers. Look for other teams, namely the Yankees and Angels to put out feelers, but expect that Man-Ram stays in LA.
Blockbuster trades? As usual, this requires some 'leap of faith" speculation since we usually don't hear a whisper about surprising trades until they happen. I'll take a shot. My guess is that Prince Fielder gets traded just before spring training....to Tampa Bay for Scott Kazmir.
Meanwhile, the Winter Meetings are a couple weeks away. We know the drill by now...expect more action before and after the meetings than during.
Jake Peavy is another name being thrown about. The Braves were closing in on landing "Peav" but balked at including top pitching prospect Tommy Hanson. From where I sit, I don't get the Braves' reluctance. Peavy would give them the ace they need. Hanson looks very good, but he's an unproven kid. I still think the Braves are a potential match for Peavy, but at this point you'd have to think the Dodgers could emerge as a favorite. How about this deal...James McDonald and Andre Ethier for Peavy. That would help both teams out. If it happens, the Dodgers would have a devastating front four of Billingsley, Peavy, Kershaw and Kuroda. Wow.
The bidding for Mark Teixeira has yet to get underway. Many insiders believe the Yankees' focus on pitching will keep them out of the bidding. The Angels should do all they can to lock up Big Tex as they need his bat. Look for the Red Sox to make a move at Tex as well. In fact, if I'm Theo Epstein, I make acquiring Teixeira a priority.
The closers market is suddenly flooded, with Trevor Hoffman and Kerry Wood being cast aside by their former teams. The Mets, Tigers, Indians and Brewers have the biggest need for a stopper at the moment. Look for the market's biggest name, Francisco Rodriguez, to eventually sign with the Mets. I see Hoffman heading to Cleveland, Wood to Texas and Brian Fuentes to the Brew Crew. Two other closers that might move via trade include Bobby Jenks and Jose Valverde.
Manny Ramirez has already said he's going with the highest bidder. So far, the only interested suitor appears to be the Dodgers. Look for other teams, namely the Yankees and Angels to put out feelers, but expect that Man-Ram stays in LA.
Blockbuster trades? As usual, this requires some 'leap of faith" speculation since we usually don't hear a whisper about surprising trades until they happen. I'll take a shot. My guess is that Prince Fielder gets traded just before spring training....to Tampa Bay for Scott Kazmir.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
The Fall Classic
Needless to say, a man could have made a killing placing a $100 bet in Vegas that the Rays would make the World Series. (For the record, it would have paid out 20 grand) Now that the match-up is set let's take a look and make a prediction.
This year's Series features the two teams that were the hottest in baseball down the stretch. The Rays won 97 games in baseball's strongest division and the Phillies held off the Mets in September and then easily dispatched off both the Brewers and the Dodgers.
The rotations are very different, with Tampa holding a significant advantage.
That said, the best pitcher on either team is Philadelphia's Cole Hamels. Hamels has been unstoppable in the postseason and will look to ice the Rays Wednesday night for a quick series lead. The problem is, after Hamels, the Phillies are suspect at best. Brett Myers can look like Cy Young one night and Anthony Young the next. Jamie Moyer is ageless, but he got manhandled in the NLCS. Meanwhile, midseason addition Joe Blanton is solid, if unspectacular.
The Rays are led by a trio of excellent young pitchers. Lefty Scott Kazmir draws the opening assignment and will be charged with shutting down Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. Righthanders Jamie Shields and Matt Garza are both fine performeres, with Garza on his way to becoming one of baseball's ten best pitchers. The fourth starter, Andy Sonnanstine, is a quality arm that prefers to beat opponents with guile more than heat.
The lineups are both balanced attacts that combine power and speed.
The Phillies are lead by Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. They are complimented by two fine players in their own right, outfielders Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino. The Phillies can score in bunches, but have been vulnerable to lefthanders at times this year.
The Rays are lead by their own trio of excellent hitters; Carlos Pena, BJ Upton and Evan Longoria. The onus will be on righthanded bats Longoria and Upton to exploit Philadelphia starters Hamels and Moyer.
Bottom line - these lineups are equally potent.
The pens are both effective units, with the wildcard being the closers. Philadelphia has the resurgent Brad Lidge and the Rays have the shaky Dan Wheeler. Wheeler's recent struggles led Tampa manager Joe Maddon to use David Price as the closer in Game 7 of the ALCS. If he's smart - and he's proven he is - he'll stick with Price.
In the end, this has the makings of a great series. I'm looking for the Phillies to take Game 1 behind Hamels and for the Rays to respond with a win in Game 2. When the Series shifts to Philly, watch Matt Garza give the Rays the 2-1 lead with a great performance. Game 4 goes to Philly who pounds Andy Sonnanstine into submission. Hamels gives the Phills the 3-2 lead with another win in Game 5. The Series heads back to the Trop for a Game 6 slugfest that the Rays win behind homers from Longoria and Pena. Charlie Manuel sends his ace back out for Game 7 to be opposed by Matt Garza. This time the Rays beat Hamels thanks to a three-run bomb from World Series MVP, Evan Longoria. Rookie David Price closes the Phillies out in the ninth with a 1-2-3 inning and the Rays become the first team ever to go from worst to first in one year.
Rays in 7.
This year's Series features the two teams that were the hottest in baseball down the stretch. The Rays won 97 games in baseball's strongest division and the Phillies held off the Mets in September and then easily dispatched off both the Brewers and the Dodgers.
The rotations are very different, with Tampa holding a significant advantage.
That said, the best pitcher on either team is Philadelphia's Cole Hamels. Hamels has been unstoppable in the postseason and will look to ice the Rays Wednesday night for a quick series lead. The problem is, after Hamels, the Phillies are suspect at best. Brett Myers can look like Cy Young one night and Anthony Young the next. Jamie Moyer is ageless, but he got manhandled in the NLCS. Meanwhile, midseason addition Joe Blanton is solid, if unspectacular.
The Rays are led by a trio of excellent young pitchers. Lefty Scott Kazmir draws the opening assignment and will be charged with shutting down Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. Righthanders Jamie Shields and Matt Garza are both fine performeres, with Garza on his way to becoming one of baseball's ten best pitchers. The fourth starter, Andy Sonnanstine, is a quality arm that prefers to beat opponents with guile more than heat.
The lineups are both balanced attacts that combine power and speed.
The Phillies are lead by Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. They are complimented by two fine players in their own right, outfielders Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino. The Phillies can score in bunches, but have been vulnerable to lefthanders at times this year.
The Rays are lead by their own trio of excellent hitters; Carlos Pena, BJ Upton and Evan Longoria. The onus will be on righthanded bats Longoria and Upton to exploit Philadelphia starters Hamels and Moyer.
Bottom line - these lineups are equally potent.
The pens are both effective units, with the wildcard being the closers. Philadelphia has the resurgent Brad Lidge and the Rays have the shaky Dan Wheeler. Wheeler's recent struggles led Tampa manager Joe Maddon to use David Price as the closer in Game 7 of the ALCS. If he's smart - and he's proven he is - he'll stick with Price.
In the end, this has the makings of a great series. I'm looking for the Phillies to take Game 1 behind Hamels and for the Rays to respond with a win in Game 2. When the Series shifts to Philly, watch Matt Garza give the Rays the 2-1 lead with a great performance. Game 4 goes to Philly who pounds Andy Sonnanstine into submission. Hamels gives the Phills the 3-2 lead with another win in Game 5. The Series heads back to the Trop for a Game 6 slugfest that the Rays win behind homers from Longoria and Pena. Charlie Manuel sends his ace back out for Game 7 to be opposed by Matt Garza. This time the Rays beat Hamels thanks to a three-run bomb from World Series MVP, Evan Longoria. Rookie David Price closes the Phillies out in the ninth with a 1-2-3 inning and the Rays become the first team ever to go from worst to first in one year.
Rays in 7.
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